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Before the Open
by Leavitt Brothers
Thursday, July 2, 2009

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Good morning. Happy Thursday.

Employment numbers are out. Here they are…

Unemployment rate in June is 9.5% (vs. 9.4% in May) – this is the highest since May 1983.

Nonfarm payrolls down 467K (vs. down 370K expected)

Hourly earnings unchanged (vs. up 0.2% last month).

Futures were down several points heading into the numbers. The market’s reaction has been very negative.

I expect some movement the first hour or so before traders leave early and turn the 3-day weekend into a near 4-day weekend.

Today is a good day to play good defense…dump laggards, and free up some cash. Given the range bound trading we’ve had, there’s no reason to be fully invested right now anyways.

Here’s the SPX daily…not very exciting. The market is pretty much unchanged the last two months. Rallies get sold, dips get bought. Select individual stocks are doing better, but there are fewer big winners. Research shows that more than 50% of a stock’s movement is based on the overall market (an individual stock just does exactly what the market does), so without the market going anywhere, stocks don’t have support or confirmation. If you’re a bull, you’ll feel great one day and be frustrated the next. Same with being a bear. The reality is the market is range bound, so you really shouldn’t be too opinionated.

Have a great weekend.

headlines at Yahoo Finance

stocks to watch from MarketWatch

today's upgrades/downgrades

yesterday's leaders & laggards

this week's earnings & economic releases

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