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  1. whidbey says:

    With Wall Street all bulled up on the economy, expecting a print of 175K while the whipser number was decidedly higher, and closer to 200K, the BLS reported that in September the US created only 156K jobs, missing expectations, and down from the upward revised 167K in August, leaving the question of whether the Fed will hike. They fear a weak market more than inflation, so hold on. Down into the end of this year

  2. Daddy Paul says:

    Never seen a market like this.

  3. AussieJS says:

    even intraday its not a normal market

    with jail and the sack obviously their is a lot of protection being used

    a big move is coming

  4. whidbey says:

    great report. Next week is no where, but earnings start. The green links suggest that a some financial and my work on dividends says there are possibilities, still I suspect we have a move down into the end of this year. The 13-14 Dec lunar eclipse has me come concerned, as does the election. I will go light.

  5. whidbey says:

    slow-motion meltdown of the Eurozone’s banking system is the key to this weeks pains. Expect some Fed action in Dec to help the ECB keep the EU off the ropes. Still expecting weak ending to 2016. The US election may be the biggest threat to our solvency. Be nervous.

  6. Daddy Paul says:

    Correction to my post a week or so ago. I have seen this pattern before in the early 90’s.
    I see a modest pull back then strong buying. I seldom put much faith in pre electronic data but at this time it is all I have.
    The market is full of human emotion. Human emotions never change. Greed is always greed. Fear is always fear.

  7. whidbey says:

    ETF trades look most promising, but politicans mean chaos, and more debt. Energy and health care ETFs maybe a play,and some bonds could move. Not sure of anything this AM, Alcoa misses, IMF says global GDP should rise next year. But will it happen?

  8. AussieJS says:

    is the big rounding top head and shoulders distribution about to break out of its range

    falling and breaking its neck

  9. whidbey says:

    As usual Fed is saying very little,why? 60% probable to raise. Gutless about inflation and runs like yesterday that showed little investor faith in equities. Notice that the SEC is pressuring the mutual funds to take the safe route? Why is that? They know that the funds are likely to have runs? Yes!!! Few speak English any more so much thought is required to survive!

  10. Daddy Paul says:

    If we have a down day today about 2:30 EDT it is buy time.

  11. whidbey says:

    Market closed.The fed was suffering and did nothing, as expected. a very sick market and government!

  12. whidbey says:

    Weak markets in US and Europe. Stay home today, the Fed has no policy and the harm to investors will grow.

  13. Daddy Paul says:

    Always nice to read a swing traders perspective.
    My models tell me the low is getting close… But not close enough.

  14. your earnings links to paywall ):p

  15. OkieDawg says:

    Miss Janet must be getting better at technical analysis! Once again the invisible hand showed up at support and we get the usual “save the weekly ” gap up this morning. A break to the 200 sure would be nice to reset indicators for a more sustainable rally. Oh well, there’s always football!

  16. whidbey says:

    Much pain over retail sales, corp debt levels, and china economy. Yellen will fix it all. If not her there is Clinton.

  17. liar liar says:

    dollar index is threatening to test 100 again. indicators are pointing to more sustainable and vertical rally this time. if it does finally break 100, i get the feeling it will be fireworks. probably in other markets as well (bonds, currencies, equities, commodities), in various directions.

    • With the recent hawkish Fed talk, a December rate hike seems like a done deal. Will a dollar rally handcuff the Fed and force them to keep rates where they are?

  18. whidbey says:

    THIS new game of Yellen’s may be a QE twist and some fiscal tampering to infuse capital into businesses; it is a desperate act, but Fed does not want to raise rates this year. So lower taxes or give tax holiday. This is a EU/BoJ stunt so play the utilities with a well managed etf, or watch a while in cash.

    • whidbey says:

      One sign that the economy is beginning to run hot is that the U.S. jobless rate has fallen to 5%, signaling diminished slack in the labor market (BS). Despite its descent in recent years, Fed officials have been prepared to keep interest rates low and encourage the jobless rate to fall further still”. (wages rise? my comment). WSJ comments 10/15/2016. This is playing with the Phillips curve and hoping nothing goes wrong( read inflation and added corp debt). T am Being very conservative.

  19. whidbey says:

    The fed is thinking about letting the economy heat up, they are not capable of this stunt which involves letting jobs grow and the inflation climb. Idiocy.

  20. Daddy Paul says:

    My indicators are telling me a bottom is near.
    A spike in the PC ratio or a nice gap down and in my opinion it is time to go long.
    I do plan on being in dry powder around election day.

  21. whidbey says:

    The Bank of England is prepared to tolerate higher inflation over the next few years and will keep interest rates low to support economic growth, according to Governor Mark Carney.

    Source: Telegraph

    In a further indication that the Federal Reserve will be inclined to let inflation run hot for a while, Chair Janet Yellen on Friday said it’s useful to consider the benefits of a -”high pressure economy.”

    This is phase two in central bank madness. Controlling inflation once loosed is rarely easy/possible since it involves raising rates and keeping them high until the public and commercial banks and retailers be come believers. The last two episodes required months to slow inflation. It only hurts the retired and the poor. Think it over.

  22. AussieJS says:

    there is no inflation because their are no jobs,nor company profits

    its all a fraud–a ponsi–b ad bad bad and the implosion will be contagious

    take your anti biotics

    jail all politions –bankers and central bankers and judges

    the french to bring back the gilotine –and the revolution to free the people of coruption

  23. AussieJS says:

    a day of consolidation before the up or down

    the year of the day trader

  24. whidbey says:

    Stan Fisher says letting inflation loose means having to catch it later. Janet says skip it Stanley if you knew anything you would no be my assistant.

  25. Daddy Paul says:

    “The leaders are leading, but right now the followers are not following.”
    Tells me it is not a great time to go long…. Yet.

    Love your blog!

  26. whidbey says:

    Very little is evident,but expect an up move after the debate this AM. My China holdings look promising, but I have felt that way before. Starbucks looks very promising in China.

  27. whidbey says:

    ECB says little that explains how the EU will go on, but is hopeful fiscal policy can be a part. WAITING in other words ..we have options. He Must have talked to Yellen recently. Frankly I am concerned and liking US cash more… while admiring gold greatly.

  28. whidbey says:

    The dollar and oil are in whirl. The energy is in high finance and the dollar is the road to new stock manipulation. We must look at other exchange medium like bitcoin which is not government controlled. Bitcoin is a digital currency distributed worldwide in which encryption techniques are used to regulate the generation of units of currency and verify the transfer of funds. Unlike traditional currencies such as dollars, bitcoins are issued and managed without any central authority whatsoever : there is no government, company, or bank in charge of Bitcoin. If we survive it will be our own doing.

  29. AussieJS says:

    the world as we know it will be destroyed by greed and coruption
    these are false gods and IMPLANTED PURPOSES [not our own]

    when there are no more dicotomys and positive and negative become one
    then a new spiritual dawning will be at hand

    but the people [the masses] must ask for it
    the started with the britex will they continue with the election and reforemdums

    reform and change ,till then have fun daytrading and capturing many scalps

  30. Jack says:

    Thanks for the weekly update. Yup, $ES stuck in a range and probably until after election i imagine. $managers want to see who is gonna be the new POTUS.

    Think you’re right… look for Dec rate hike qtr point or surprise mrket w half pt… we will see.

    until then… happy trading! :)


  31. whidbey says:

    Four fed speakers today. AT&T seeks to buy TW and trump has almost given up, so we can see lots 0f action this week. long options on rise in markets. By the way, hate windows 10, AApl has my money.

  32. AussieJS says:

    a nas 100 retest high unconfirmed by 3 lower highs in spx and divergence dow

    german dax up unconfirmed by ftse

    be carefull of a fast move down as central banks may not be able to hold it

  33. whidbey says:

    The fed says Dec 2016 will be the date up .25 bp. in the meanwhile, the debt rises mighty. own some gold and EM etfs??

  34. AussieJS says:

    true false breaks have fast moves in the the opposite direction

    nas 100 may qualify –at its high after hours it hit 4923 and low today at 4887

    ive closed my short incase its just a pull back for another 5th wave push higher

    im waiting to see which direction

  35. Daddy Paul says:

    The RUT is near a 4 month low. The NASDAQ is near an all time high. The divergence makes me want to stay clear. October 2007 had such a divergence. Don’t expect to be that bad this time.

  36. AussieJS says:

    closed shorts and could be a reversal day if spx2130 holds

    the marsians may be buying as if trump wins they may have a contract to establish a penial colony on mars for all the bankers politicans ,judges and corrupt officials of earth

  37. AussieJS says:

    another test of the down sloping 5o day ma may set up for a fast crash to sub zero

    well we have sub zero interest rates –why not sub zero stocks

    of course that may mean a bit of doom /gloom and trump will win