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  1. James Ricketts says:

    If the $SPX was 2641.89 on 11/20/2018 and 2670.71 on 01/19/2019 for a positive $DELTA of $28.82 or 1.09%, then how do you get a negative 0.70% change referenced in the article? Must be something simple that I am missing. Can someone set me straight? Thanks. Jim

    • admin says:

      In order to “capture” the November 20 data, you have to use the November 19 closing print, which was 2690.73.

      If you use 2641.89, you’re not using November 20 as your starting point.

  2. whidbey says:

    Bonds, particularly governments, seem bearish,as does natural gas in one of coldest winters in a while. Ray Dalio says it looks like 1937.
    Other than that hold your breath.

  3. whidbey says:

    Good employment numbers…but we Americans face heavy debt, total debt, personal and public and the result we be inflation going foreword, Look at precious metals for 5 – 10% of your capital. Sailing to Hawaii to avoid the weather in the northwest US would make great sense, but it is not so cold in the north Pacific……. 40 degrees F this morning.

  4. whidbey says:

    The debt level is real.

  5. Chris says:

    The major indexes are not yet printing any higher highs

  6. whidbey says:

    rates volatility is the best way to measure the effectiveness of the monetary policy “put” in a world where a massive accumulation of debt makes a selloff at the long-end a complete non-starter, then central banks have been incredibly effective at offsetting “implied political volatility” Being in cash seems just the natural place to be for a while….

  7. Daddy Paul says:

    Great analysis! I don’t disagree with Jason often even though we use significantly different methods we often get the same results.
    I do believe a minor pullback is possible in the next two weeks. I am more bullish than Jason because the VXN is back below 20 and the total put call ratio is still high running around 1.0. I agree with Jason be on guard here being long. I am watching the PC ratio to fall below 0.70 for a couple of days.
    Caution with the PC ratio if it falls below 0.45 or so BUY! The bulls will be running for a few weeks.

    Paul

  8. Daddy Paul says:

    NYSE new highs right now 68 new lows 3. 9:42 CST. NASDAQ not so great.

  9. AussieJS says:

    wave i down from sept ended in dec

    corrective overlapping wave 2 looks to have finished THIS WEEK

    IF so crash wave 3 down will take us to new lows
    its a impulsive [no over lap] 5 wave affair

    80 % of trades are via computer algorithms and is GLOBAL
    why is it global–any market that trades of algorithms is connected via futures

    ie -i am trading Australia /japan now of live markets Europe and USA
    i am also trading the live markets

    i day trade in the direction of the 5 and 2 minute algorithms
    algorithms trade of fundamentals,TA,news items,announcements,currencies,bonds and are to fast for me
    so i have to follow their direction

    over all longer term trend is only important to me as it is easier to trade of its direction
    but i can trade very short term sniper/scalper counter trend moves

  10. AussieJS says:

    at Xmas earth was invaded by alien martian bears,that stole all the human bears shorts
    they were faster than humans as they already have 5G technology

    as leader of the human bears,we have this week decided to take back our shorts

  11. whidbey says:

    confusion. Wait for the politics to work out a little. Meanwhile, consider some gold at $1299 if the dollar moves down.

  12. Daddy Paul says:

    My model says stay long but watchful.

  13. AussieJS says:

    the bulls will hold ,whilst the bears take control

  14. peter says:

    Hi,
    I use the keltner bands set to 5 sma, macd 5,27,9 and mfi 20/80/7 or 20/80/14 and trade mostly reversals when oversold/overbought.paying the most attention to the Macd when it crosses from below /above and since I trade mostly credit/debit spreads I exit the loosing leg as soon as a up/down trend is established and keep an eye on the remaining leg via chart ,which tells me when to exit that leg before expiration.It’s a little more difficult with Iron Condors but works well with other spreads.Please let me know what you think about the above
    Thank you

  15. Lance Payne says:

    A very comprehensive article on Moving Averages. Thanks, Jason … really well done.

    Currently I’m using the 50 and 200 day SMA. Also, the 30 week SMA (or switching to the 20 0r 50 weekly SMA if they correlate closer with the price action.)

    In the past, I have used the 8/21 EMA for daily, weekly and monthly, the 20, 50, and 200 daily EMA and the 8/65 daily SMA and a 65 daily SMA with a 3% band.

  16. kevin sowter says:

    Good compilation- AS an EOD investor, I use a Daily and also a 2 hr chart- Price with a Fast 4 ema, 10, 20, 50 for reference….Allows me to capture the early turns – raise cash early on price turns- -but also comes with whipsaws–
    Like all things TA- practice the application you choose over different market conditions, to discover when it proves most effective.

  17. Daddy Paul says:

    I would not be investing in Spain anytime soon.
    Yesterday the market gapped up and never looked back. Strong internals. I don’t want to be short here.

  18. AussieJS says:

    the bullish pattern
    the markets just broke the neck of a inverse head/shoulders ”V ” bottom and 200 MA
    THERE ARE ALSO BEARISH DIVERGENCES AND PATTERNS

    IMO call options greatly outnumber puts to record levels and monthly opts x this Friday,which is having a effect on markets
    derivatives are more important than mother stocks

  19. AussieJS says:

    markets bottom in APATHY,and we are still a long way away from that,maybe a year away

    we are still in the HOPE phase ,which is usually corrective wave 2 up

  20. whidbey says:

    Dow up 400 more or less on open, President talks AM national emergency. Respect Gold since things are likely to move today….. long weekends are dangerous..

  21. Kevin says:

    Thank you for this very comprehensive overview of moving averages. It is very helpful and appreciated.

    Kevin

  22. whidbey says:

    A Mess as the market decides if it has a future in 2019. work on the 2018 taxes and expect little for first quarter 2019. Interest rates are likely the thing which holds up the market decision…

  23. Daddy Paul says:

    Still long. The yield curve is getting flatter than I would like. Still betting on record highs this year.

    • whidbey says:

      LOTS OF GUTS, BUT YOU ARE OUT ON A LIMB. You must hold your bank roll down to manage risk?? This a year to avoid for high rollers. Ask Jason where the market is he says there is one somewhere.

  24. whidbey says:

    BEFORE the weekend anything can happen, China Negotiations????

  25. AussieJS says:

    when to ”heads ” meet
    there is a reverse head and shoulders from the ”v ” low
    this has created a right shoulder for a downward slopping head and shoulders

    which one will win

  26. whidbey says:

    This is anyone’s market, but housing is declining in price and debt of consumers is growing re autos and education loans. BRK-B suggests caution for now…

  27. Mark Jones says:

    There was a Trump tweet at 6:58 AM EST about OPEC & Oil — that was the apparent reason for Oil move in premarket hours.

    Link:
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1100002139282309121

  28. whidbey says:

    Weakness is evident, avoiding this period is my move.

  29. whidbey says:

    “The long-term outlook is terrible. The short-term outlook is not too bad”, says Greenspan. Beware.

  30. Daddy Paul says:

    Jason
    Great read. I have to say you are spot on here.
    Paul

  31. Daddy Paul says:

    Futures dropped a lot since 4 AM %AM EST. This could be a hard day for the bulls.

  32. Daddy Paul says:

    The bulls are winning. Proof of stay with what you know. LOL!

  33. whidbey says:

    the markets are unfit for an investor,so ayay away for a few days, and think about a few bonds, tax free?

  34. whidbey says:

    Beginning of the end, the border wall has a new adversary called the US Senate… No support for the President and a national emergency spending plan; ten there is the US debt, Public And Private; which threatens sanity. HOW WILL IT END?? Unknowable! And the pressure on the USA Citizens is growing as the US House schemes for impeachment material for Trump.

    It is snowing again so we have time to think some more. Oh yes, they are working on the US Tax Code. Personally I am considering rethinking my US citizenship.

    • Jason Leavitt says:

      Really? Where’s your top destination?

      • whidbey says:

        I have a place in Singapore and it could be place for a restart in life. Thanks for suggesting I think a little before I shoot my mouth off.

  35. AussieJS says:

    from the charts –the great great depression is starting–thanks to dragie

    many bankruptcies

    head to Vietnam–may be alright –i like Da Lat,best climate in Vietnam

  36. AussieJS says:

    negative rates are a proven disaster and harbor negative growth and debt

    boom and bust is good and healthy

  37. whidbey says:

    time is not on your side, holding precious metals I think we confront a correction soon. sold half of BA stock; its down 11%. No haRM BUT it is a great local firm.

  38. whidbey says:

    A major botton is forming, with a major move higher in April mid month. Watch the charts for conformations. Yes, I ave been wrong so be alert.

  39. whidbey says:

    Beginning of an end!? Daedalus waS A Greek GOD WHO FLEW TOO CLOSE TO The SUN and dead when his wings melted and him fell to his death….. I fear we are going to the same soon. I am selling a ittle BA stock every day. I think- fear their wings are also melting and taking my VanGuard ETFs down as well. Think it over: aRE tHINGS MELTing????. Watch CaLpERS, IT TOO IS coming apart. Drink your lunch, its summer in Singapore and its time to rethink.

  40. whidbey says:

    wonderful fed meeting, lucky they showed up and explained every thing, buy utilities and a few bunds.