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  1. whidbey says:

    Major public and gov’t Debt levels are showing high points ; but not necessarily tops; fear the Fed which moving towards some kind of recession in the fall via its rate policy promises. Then there is El Nino jump in the weather pattern- more rain. live it up and stay on your diet.

  2. whidbey says:

    Market Building cause for next leg down before the 4th of July. Being under invested in cash sounds right for now.

    Jason: we missed you yesterday, hope all is well.

    • Jason Leavitt says:

      It was a travel day. I’ll be spending the next 5 weeks in Costa Rica, but the site will not be interrupted.

  3. whidbey says:

    The market in trading range to oct, a new bull probably starts in second week of Oct, but buy and holding will require patience. I use 31 days to time moves from wherever we were/are. I like bonds which are at lows now or soon. TLT is interesting. I suspect that worldwide things will look up so I will hold some internationals in Europe, watch China carefully.

  4. Daddy Paul says:

    We need a couple down days in a row for a buy signal. This up down up down is hard for my trading style.

  5. AussieJS says:

    looks like a developing H/S and their is a triangle there

  6. Daddy paul says:

    I was buying gas before the 4th of July the price was about 2.59. I was waiting in line to pay my fee and there was a young man cleaning the floor. We started talking and I said the price of gas will be over 3 on the 4th of July he replied it’s going up $200 a barrel and the stock market’s going to crash 10000 points. So I asked him what in this investment decision would you make his answer was if he had any money he would buy gold. If I have ever had a signal to tell me to go long this was it.

  7. whidbey says:

    US trade deficit drops to smallest since before 2016 election. Is it a buy? possibly short run but keep an open mind.

  8. whidbey says:

    We come to deep summer knowing that fall 2018 will end a long run in USA and EU markets. The primary path to success so far? Exposure to tech-oriented and growth-oriented securities in funds like Vanguard Growth (NYSEARCA:VUG), iShares Russell 1000 Growth (NYSEARCA:IWF), and SPDR S&P 500 Growth (NYSEARCA:SPYG/VOOG). Holding cash and watching.

  9. AussieJS says:

    dow and spx still in downtrend below highs –ndx diverging

    the end is close

  10. AussieJS says:

    for daytraders—was this a good point to short the bounce

  11. whidbey says:

    The peak looks like started a few months ago – that means over the next six months things can get ugly fast. Fed tightening, and trade wars – the coming months have limited upside with possible significant downside – things are negatively asymmetric (high risk – low reward). keeping plenty of cash, maybe some precious metals later.

  12. Daddy paul says:

    Todays gap. Noise

  13. whidbey says:

    WTI looking good.

  14. Daddy Paul says:

    Record highs time to take some off table.

  15. whidbey says:

    ​If the Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese and other imports turn into noticeable price increases, consumer spending could crumple in a matter of months, and US economic growth could fall to close to zero from an estimated 2.8% to 4% for the second quarter.” (David Goldman

  16. Daddy paul says:

    I am selling out from my Feb 2 buy signal today. I wish I would have heled all of my trade until today I would have made more money. I don’t have next months wall Street journal or I could be very rich.

  17. whidbey says:

    We have seen little as yet.inflation and fed reactions are yet to unfold, but the FANGE crew are likely to last into deep fall when the holiday sales attempt to revive the market, Watch energy and consumables before the recession arrives in January 2019.

  18. whidbey says:

    Iranian barrels are rolling off the piers, the Saudis and the Russians are ramping up production of oil, and of course, there’s the newly revealed wild card: The U.S. government is considering tapping into its emergency oil reserves ahead of the mid-term elections. In short, watch crude,WTI, to be precise. This could be the start of something ugly.

  19. whidbey says:

    Short gold and silver this AM.

  20. whidbey says:

    There is no divergence yet between stock indices and the NYSE’s composite A-D Line. But there is one in the High Yield Bonds (like HYD) Line, and that is an early warning of big trouble to come. McClellan Charts this Am

  21. whidbey says:

    Down into Oct 2018 low with a strong upswing over the holidays into 2019 spring. Yes, we are in bull market environment. Right translations are possible so moves can be delayed. The bond markets are likely to move up into the next years, maybe up into 2022. Stay loose.

  22. Daddy Paul says:

    I enjoyed the state of the market today.

  23. AussieJS says:

    it would appear only a few people understand what CAPITALISM is all about

    its a cycle of boom /bust

    growth in the face of debt is BAD

    deflation is too many goods/commodities chasing to little real money

    central banks are withdrawing liquidity [ usa 80 billion per month ]

    china does not understand capitalism and will go bust same as japan in 1987

    china is despised in asia for its expansions and developments in thailand cambodia vietnam now africa

    world growth in the face of debt will go bust

    the world should have gone bust in 2008 now the bust will be 10 times worst

    the bust can not be stopped as its part of the cycle

  24. whidbey says:

    Facebook took gas yesterday. It is likely more of a hold/slight buy rather than a strong buy right here. The reason I want to continue to own Facebook is because it is a dominant market leader, selling at a relatively inexpensive valuation, that should continue to grow revenues at a double digit rate for several (possibly 5-10) years into the future.

  25. whidbey says:

    GDP is a surprise this AM.The fed may have to change rates plans on increases. Where is the bull market today? It is coming this fall I hope. It is warm as hell here in paradise……….

  26. Alan Eckert says:

    Great post and explanations.

    I am a big picture trader. So monthly is what I look at first. There is no sign of a long term Top. I suspect that will come in the next couple years. But I do think when we see a break out on the SPX above the January 2018 Top, we will see a real strong rally way above where most are thinking.

    Love these weekly posts! Great work!

    • Jason Leavitt says:

      I agree Alan. The long term looks great, and when the market does leg up, it’ll be a lock-out rally, meaning it’ll go up day after day and not let anyone in who isn’t already in.

  27. Daddy Paul says:

    Great post.
    I cannot find a period in time where the NASDAQ went down and the RUT went up. There are many occurrences in bear markets where the NASDAQ does go down significantly harder that the RUT. The one that comes to mind are the 5 weeks prior to 911 where Nas lost 20 and the RUT lost only 10. Back then I sensed something was about to happen. (I expected a market bounce.) Was I wrong!

    I will hold in cash for now.

  28. whidbey says:

    U.S. stock futures are mixed this AM to start the heaviest week of earnings season, when more than 140 S&P 500 companies, including Apple, will report results. Is FB a buy the dip case???

  29. liar liar says:

    After working on it all weekend, prediction from the liar: Dollar index will be at 100 and 10-year yield will be at 3.35% at year-end 2018.

  30. Daddy Paul says:

    Maybe Friday will generate a buy signal. Maybe.

  31. Richard says:

    That’s pretty funny, at least to me. I spend 5 months± in Costa Rica. Power outages are a way of life in CR. The infrastructure has no redundancy, the local power company (ICE) is top heavy with a lot of management, a lot of newer expensive trucks, a whole lot of million colones pensions and not enough trained manpower. IT’s a beautiful country with an enormous # of self made problems. Battery Backup on both the computer and the internet.

    Better luck today (Wednesday)

  32. whidbey says:

    Fed is getting seriously hawkish: It revealed that instead of thinking about backing off rate hikes because the yield curve is flattening.[ As the Yield Curve Flattens, it threatens to Invert causing a recession.] Will the Fed Discard the curve as the Recession Indicator? 2PM ET Fed will speak to we peasants.

  33. liar liar says:

    i am seeing large unpriced risks in US and global stocks and bonds. central banks will not (be able to) act so generously to markets this time.

  34. whidbey says:

    The small business outlook for general business conditions in the US is doing well so far. Small business is the main engine for economic growth in the United States if you believe the press. This is probably the most positive indicator currently when it comes to the US economic outlook in 2018\19. The Fed may support growth but.. is not clear yet that they support growth as much as they fear tariffs. Staying only 10% invested…watching for signals of the political economic crowd.

  35. Daddy Paul says:

    Jason
    Sorry to hear about your frustration. Today is a great day to just stay out of the market.

  36. sludgehound says:

    Nice overall analysis. Suspect market has to digest the Sept likely hike to put torch to the breakouts like to 3000 / 3200 mentioned. Then a decent rally until Dec pause time to see if EOY hike. Hasn’t been Fed’s strong suit to like a late Dec hike but would do so if faces “too much” potential inflation signals like a boosted EOY run. All this spills ahead to 1Q19 for resolution. Course by then the early bets get the wormies, whether worth them or not.
    Do like seeing a summer pause like in best prior years. Bodes well for a rest-based run. Whereas a jaggy summer season suggests sense of pending exhaustion & building of fear/choke. A market chewing on its bone isn’t one likely to bust out when fall time comes. Until Fed end month hike, there isn’t lot of macro info either so steady steady the monkey.

  37. whidbey says:

    Watch the CPI,it can move to 5% on the ten year this month. The FANG gang is looking healthy, the rest of the stock market is in fluctuation.

  38. whidbey says:

    Yuan down to 7 maybe, China seems to want a showdown with US on trade. Sales of US govt bonds today. Tesla belongs in prison for its owners actions. Patience it is summer and labor day soon Mean fall.

  39. whidbey says:

    Turkey lyra in currency problem chiefly business debt which is affecting Euro banks, US CPI up due to housing costs rising. Holding at 10 % investment level for summer slump into fall.

  40. AussieJS says:

    it is to hard for me to pick the current trend

    either we have just finished a large extensive 6 month corrective wave 2 up to almost new highs
    and large impulsive wave 3 down is starting

    or we are in the last 5th wave up of the bull market to much higher new highs
    with wave 1 up finished and this little corrective action down is wave 2 down
    with waves 3,4 and 5 to come to new highs

    of concern is the dow divergence and pos the spx with nas making new highs

    however thats not the way i trade as a daytrader sniper with short trades of 15 minute to a day of either up or down and no bias

    however i am still a bear and would love a large wave 3 down to happen

    debt is a problem world wide and you can not have prosperity in the face of debt

  41. whidbey says:

    Americans are buying much with credit cards, the most profitable form of lending for banks, where interest rates can exceed 30%, though the average cost of funding for banks is still below 1%. This is a deal made in heaven for banks – until consumers collapse under this high-interest debt. Oct is likely the cycle top this fall. Have a care.

  42. whidbey says:

    Politicians have made unrealistic promises to public workers during good times to build political clout, but during times of low investment returns, these promises have become unrealistic and untenable. Retirement funding is part of the recession threat. But today up a ways.

  43. liar liar says:

    i am seeing heaps of unpriced risk in world (particularly u.s.) stocks and bonds. market reacted to developments properly in early 2018 but got lulled into a false sense of optimism that “this too shall pass.” based on the developments we have seen since the u.s.-initiated global tensions broke out, risks are higher now, not lower, and resolution/reconciliation is less, not more, likely. this too may not pass. if it does not, watch out below.

  44. AussieJS says:

    dow and spx have broken vital support and fallen out of their current channels

    was short dow but closed it for today

  45. AussieJS says:

    most of the downturn occurred during europe open and had control of world currencies

    the handover to usa occurs at high noon usa time

    so contagion does exist

    dax and ftse to lead usa lower