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  1. Daddy paul says:

    Yield curve is still not flat or inverted. I say stay long or be wrong

  2. Daddy Paul says:

    I am looking for 7808 on the NASDAQ to go long. Yes a swing traders nightmare.

  3. Daddy Paul says:

    7808 was a good number… BUT I think we have a dead cat.
    Buy low sell higher.

  4. Daddy Paul says:

    Gap down this AM and my models say buy buy buy. It does not feel that way. What would Livermore do?

  5. whidbey says:

    This is the start of period that leads to confusion for the summer and a fall when the fed makes adjustments that will hurt for the year to follow.

  6. whidbey says:

    weakness is creeping into the markets. I am ready for set back by the fed before fall2019

  7. Daddy Paul says:

    Nice state of market video. I am suspecting a washout Thursday. Should that happen my advice is to go long or be wrong.
    Early this month was the time to get out. 5-9 and 5-10 I did get buy signals. They were dead cats and did not last long. Thursday if we do get a down day I will be looking for a bottom around 2:30 EST. I would be a lot more comfortable holding anything I buy Thursday than the previous signals. I sure would not short here.


  8. Daddy Paul says:

    I don’t see this as a time to buy or sell. I had hoped for a washout today. Unless we have a bloody afternoon that will not happen.
    The market feels funny. My models are saying buy… maybe.

  9. Daddy Paul says:

    Big gap down coming in morning….. My models cannot generate a buy signal based on todays action. No trading Friday.

  10. Daddy Paul says:

    Any gap down in morning all of my models say buy… Will it be a dead cat or the real deal???

  11. Daddy Paul says:

    This does not look like dead cat nor does it feel like one. Be long or be wrong.

  12. Daddy Paul says:

    VXN and put call ratio support this rally. AD line outside NASDAQ supports this rally. I fear the yield curve BUT bear markets generally happen 6 to 18 months after the inversion. The 30 is still 50 basis points above the 10. In my case stay long.

  13. Daddy Paul says:

    I say hold your longs for now.

  14. whidbey says:

    The markets world wide are hesitate to accept risk and are showing Sell-in-May symptoms. I think the investors can look at and buy bonds and swat lighting bugs. Sailing this week Pacific is warm- sort of!

  15. Daddy Paul says:

    I say stay long. VXN looks good PC ratio looks good AD looks ok. Yield curve is not what I like.

  16. whidbey says:

    My options trading has taken a turn for the better, i am making money.

  17. Daddy Paul says:

    I don’t often get surprised by the market…. Today was!

  18. whidbey says:

    Sell in May and go away for the late fall.

  19. Daddy Paul says:

    I say hold long.

  20. Daddy Paul says:

    I am out. I have never been able to calculate when to get out of the market… It just looks like the market is getting tired. I got a buy signal on May 29 near the close and went all in. Sold out yesterday… Good indication market is going higher.

  21. whidbey says:


    it is prudent to be slow to buy anything but a few puts. We confront the fed and Europe in a very messy winter to come.

  22. Daddy Paul says:

    CNN was forecasting a strong August… Confirms.. I will stay out of the market.
    I have never been able to calculate tops. It is time to ride the pine.

  23. Daddy Paul says:

    2:00 PM EST FOMC Announcement Trade time!

  24. Daddy Paul says:

    I got buy signals… It does not feel right. In but not all in. I have gone back and read my journals about when this has happened before.. My gut is 50 50.

  25. DB says:

    Back after years, where is whidbey? :(

  26. Daddy paul says:


  27. whidbey says:

    The Fed day with Powell and trade wars with China have set us back for a while, likely into the late fall.
    Van Guard is my broker. The 2020 election may be the hard point for investors….

  28. Daddy Paul says:

    NASDAQ 7700 is my buy number..

  29. Daddy Paul says:

    China China China. Buy into weakness sell into strength.

  30. whidbey says:

    correction is due in the winter months,

  31. Daddy Paul says:


  32. Daddy Paul says:

    With the market at all time highs I am out. I have never been able to calculate tops. I have shorted the market BUT with little success since 2000. My October 2 buy signal has been very generous to me.
    SOX and XLK are still leading QQQ. I say the market stays strong but I this is not my market. I can wait for another buy signal.

  33. Daddy Paul says:

    I am bad at calculating tops but I have calculated Nov 7 as a few week top. See if I am correct.

  34. Michael Proctor says:

    Hi Jason,
    I love your work which I don’t get to see as often as I would like as I live abroad. I have made donations in the past and will continue to do so or join your membership. But my comment today is I don’t seem to be able to watch the Mini Masterclass. I log in and says I have the course but when I go to watch the videos that make up the course it says it is locked and I need to log in in a circular reference type way. Not sure if it’s just me.
    Anyway, i’m really keen to watch your course and look forward to doing to full course one day. Cheers

  35. Daddy Paul says:

    CNN is making the case for the markets to move higher. Internals are decaying. VXN is very low. I am out until the next dip.

  36. Daddy Paul says:

    I have never been able to calculate tops. It is not for lack of effort. I must assume traders and investors buy the dips based some sort of logic since I have been able to calculate bottoms with some precision. When people stop buying at peaks has little predictability. News events often drive selling.

    Right now I am looking to go long when the NASDAQ drops to 8300.

  37. Daddy Paul says:

    I see Jason has been looking at PC ratio. Nice work!

  38. john mellow says:

    As far as I know the put/call ratio does not differentiate between the buying and selling of puts or calls. Hence you really want to plot the put/call open interest ratio.

    Great presentation!

  39. Pete says:

    Jason, I still like Square (SQ), do you? Go Santa go!

  40. Daddy Paul says:

    Another gap down on 1/6…. A nice day trade.. not my cup of tea but a few bucks ok.

  41. Daddy Paul says:

    Nice work as always

  42. Daddy Paul says:

    Pullback ripe:
    PC ratio was lowest yesterday in over three years. VXN is up in the last week or so. AD volume especially in AMEX was weak despite a day of good gains. I do not often short. Today’s gap may warrant a small short.

  43. fabian says:

    Thanks a lot. Learning a lot with your papers. I really don’t like the space between the price and the MAs in general. Furthermore, what looks like manageable corrections on an index graph in a bullish trend resulted in devastating drops for most of the “hip” stocks of the day. So, be prudent out there.

    • Jason Leavitt says:

      You are absolutely right. A relatively minor 5% drop for the S&P would probably see many of those “hip” stocks fall 20%.

  44. Daddy Paul says:

    Nice work!

  45. Guy Redares says:

    Euphoria mode

  46. pete says:

    comforting, fantastic!

  47. Daddy Paul says:

    Nice for long term investors.

  48. Daddy Paul says:

    The market is poised for a pullback. I do not claim to know how far or when. IF Monday the NASDAQ closes below 9085 and gaps down Tuesday I will be going long… Doubt it will happen. My last buy signal was October 2.

  49. Daddy Paul says:

    9025 on NASDAQ Tuesday. That is the buy point.