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  1. general says:

    Dr. Shiller’s CAPE ratio has appreciated to a level where it backs up his statement that we could be on the verge of a correction in stocks that will cause panic and a downside move that is much bigger than most expect.

  2. whidbey says:

    Did I lose my pen name? Today is the start of a new cycle.

  3. brent says:

    that top and drop yesterday reminds me of 1987 top

  4. Daddy Paul says:

    6135 NASDAQ magic #.

  5. AussieJS says:

    there is a 5 wave structure down in just about everything
    ie no overlap impulsive wave,indicating the top is in

    dow and others had shooting star tops,indicating that great,MARSIAN master BEAR,warlord has landed
    on earth to inielate the bulls–an obviouse key reversal engulfing event

    this shoulds now be followed by corrective overlapping chop,wave 2 up

    but i dont expect the bulls to put up much fight in these unstable bull shit markets

  6. bravon says:

    Jason,
    That link you’re posting here in today’s blog is NOT an ebook. I’m disappointed that you’re promoting such links in the name of ‘EBook’.
    Pl. keep up the good work.

  7. whidbey says:

    Earnings please markets, retail sales up nicely today. Crede 47.32, overall no major changes.

  8. AussieJS says:

    the market is vulnerable

  9. whidbey says:

    if you’re long now (or worse, just getting long now), you’re not only buying into a market that’s the third most expensive in history, you’re also buying into it at a time when the magic carpet that got us to where we are is about to be pulled from beneath us starting, in all likelihood, in September. But, I could be wrong too. I am not old and poor for nothing…

  10. AussieJS says:

    is the trump rally over

    will the debt problem now become evident

  11. whidbey says:

    Employment data report today is junk,meaning nothing. It shows part-time work is as valuable as full time; We are being played with again..still. Can’t wait til I grow up and get to the whole card.

    Market technician Tom McClellan pointed out in a late-Wednesday note that when the relationship between General Electric Co. GE, -0.16% valued at about $220 billion, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.12% where it is among one of 30 components, erodes, it is usually bad news for the broader market. Appears that GE is saying Sept 2017 may be the start of a downer in the market….hold on it starts slow.

    • You think GE is that important. Seems like a totally irrelevant stock.

      • whidbey says:

        yES, bUT IT also APPEARS tOM IS LUCKY ,OR BELIEVES IN BELLWETHERS. IN ANY CASE. I am short the principal index stocks, INVERSE, and up about 2% today. You are usually correct. Thanks.

  12. AussieJS says:

    black swans fill the sky in plauge proportions to assist market makers opts ex

    with the top in [for now] and wave one down finished is choppy wave 2 finished and we are now in
    impulsive wave 3 down

    or is this just part of the chop

  13. whidbey says:

    politics is a problem for the market…. and is not going away soon.I suspect to day is lost,but yesterday made a few bucks. Best to all.

  14. whidbey says:

    Calls for Fed to let its spreadsheet shrunk and leave the rates as is. Holding gold now, and yes I think market can go up til sept. That is a guess, she was just kidding me maybe.

  15. whidbey says:

    evidence is things could be hard for a few years. My favorite news letter:

    Here is GMO’s 7-year Annualized forecast:

    -3.9% annualized real returns per year in the coming 7 years.
    Low returns in all asset classes across the board.

    I need a plan if I am to retire.

  16. whidbey says:

    a full 93% of the new jobs reported since 2008 and 40% of the jobs in 2016 alone were added through the business birth and death model – a highly controversial model which is not supported by the data. On the contrary, all data on establishment births and deaths point to an ongoing decrease in entrepreneurship.”

    We have had bad data for some time, now they plan using their data to mismanage interest rates for the US and maybe the EU as well.

  17. AussieJS says:

    fantasy money supply,fantasy debt,fantasy jobs,fantasy bulls

    market maker instos are over extended on the short side

    become a real bear

  18. whidbey says:

    The topic of Yellen’s speech is slated to be financial conditions, in what could well be a look at how much they’ve eased and the future ramifications Buy look to Daghi to tell it like it is. The EU is doing well,with Germany leading. Look for janet to suggest things are better than they appear. Not true but she is selling a possibility to a willing audience. Its an up day at the start of a down fall into Dec.

  19. whidbey says:

    The slowing banking loan growth and the banking surveys prove the peak of the credit cycle is in and we are in a period of decelerating growth. The fat lady is going to sing soon. Go on the defensive this summer, recession is coming in the fall of 2017……

  20. whidbey says:

    Retail is weak, housing up, Consumers are very unsure and will remain that way for some time. International stocks, small cap and avoid technology.

  21. clairvoyant says:

    I think investors around the world have good reason to stock up on gold. I also think miners have a good reason to start pointing the path higher for the metals.;-D

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNUG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p85394776442

  22. AussieJS says:

    there is to be a invasion of telepathic marsian panda bears,american eagle bears australian golden kolala
    bears and kangaroos

    did nas 100 just top as adam and eve just eat a apple that had worms and will sue the internet in tort for nervios dispepsia causing gold to go up

  23. whidbey says:

    The economy and consumers in particular are slipping rapidly, but this time is is too late The result is likely to lead to higher volatility and an outcome that may be different than currently rosy U.S. stock investor expectations. Caution is way over due.

  24. whidbey says:

    If, PCE, NFP, and the AHE print that will accompany the jobs number were to all disappoint, the bottom could fall out for the greenback and the same goes for yields. tHIS IS a tell for the markets.

  25. whidbey says:

    Sad to wake to the possibility of war with N.Korea, and new debt of major proportions required to protect the deep state. Gold? Inflation and war are luxuries. We need to reset our goals and soon.Is The $28B, 7-Year Note Auction our future. How much do you want????

  26. AussieJS says:

    support has been broken

    LH,LL

    black swans fill the skies in swarms

  27. whidbey says:

    Good numbers on GDP this AM. Believe what you want…….. it is the end of summer and a modest fall says the market is one of individual stks. Shop carefully. I am an owner of silver, spy, vdc.

  28. whidbey says:

    Jobs , ADP was encouraging but suspicious. Lots of withholding money to invest in Sept. Not enthused.

  29. whidbey says:

    Gold is THE deflationary asset to own. Who would have guessed? I hold silver too. Tis fall so some corrections due to seasonality.

  30. Daddy Paul says:

    Never short a dull market

  31. whidbey says:

    Things are not dull this AM. I am still looking for fall pressure,Congressional budget deal?, new weather attack in the atlantic. Nothing to buy,there. O yes N Korea seems fraught with problems. Best.

  32. AussieJS says:

    chop chop,toil and trouble as we end final wave 4 down,or has it ended and MINUTE WAVE FIVE up to end the bull ship from 2009 on funny money
    the world cant pay for its funny money and when the bond holder and sovering debt holders get done with fed money withdraw

    well their is no more room to kick the can down the road AND NO PROSPERITY-stag inflation,and possible war

    but who will pay according to the chats the bond holder and markets

    buy panda bears gold eagles and kangaroos

    the end is near–learn to short sell as a daytrader

  33. whidbey says:

    Yesterday the US debt got mishandled and mispriced, so look at us bonds with a great deal of reservation. How about TLT??. Irma is coming like a bat out of hell for Florida. If it moves up to WashDC,its over for govt for a while. oN THE WEST COAST we worry about n korea and yellow stone.
    later

  34. whidbey says:

    Draghi says ECB and EU are doing well enough, stocks are less vigorous this AM. Have a care for the Irma storm and the one following. Long week of four days.

  35. Daddy Paul says:

    This market has no direction. Too dull to short

  36. whidbey says:

    VIG,VYM.VUG,VV,VTV ARE averaging 7.29 so far. The DXY is weakening and it is not a good sign for my play. But have a play for the fall.

  37. AussieJS says:

    Jason,

    for as long as i can remember,on ”the before the open ” you used to give your ”unbiased ”,common sense
    view as a swing trader –and i really loved it ,especially different time frames to a day trader

    some times your views really helped me even if different to mine

    please reconsider re doing this again

    imo the world is in the process of putting in long term tops for a terminal broadening jaws of death
    from decades ago

    currencies,bonds,debt and shares will all come into sync to form a top and end the 2009 bull and multi
    decade bull
    i am a bull in prosperity-1987 etc-2000-7 –all bubbles
    and the 2009 kick the can down the road funny money but now is ridiculous

  38. AussieJS says:

    someone will have to pay the piper,musical chairs,pyramid selling to mutuals/sovereigns

    it will continue whilst we have funny money

    who will default first

  39. skim says:

    Same here. I really enjoyed reading comments and daily views from the page. It was my usual routine to read before doing any of my trades. :)

  40. polywan says:

    create, initiate it out

  41. whidbey says:

    The futures are strange, watch carefully; they are gaming investors ?

  42. whidbey says:

    look at VTSAX,VTI,VTSMX. The moves in the Dow are my fear of a fall error.

    • whidbey says:

      Did not get my full note posted…..so, The destruction from Hurricane Harvey and Irma could be the catalyst that pushes the US into a recession and sets the dollar collapse in motion. That remains to be seen, but it appears pretty clear the greenback is in a dangerous place right now.

  43. whidbey says:

    U.S. Producer Prices Rose 0.2% in August. The fed needs to rethink its game. A correction and buying opportunity may be the the offing. Watch the 1:00 PM Results of $12B, 30-Year Note Auction for pricing offered by buyers.

  44. jims says:

    Results of the 30 yr bond auction…can u tell me what all this means? thx jims
    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2017/R_20170913_1.pdf

  45. whidbey says:

    Bond prices are sensitive to what the bond earns, this clue suggests to me that buyers are sensitive to rates in the 2% range and that the Fed may not want to raise interest rates this fall. I suspect investors may want a mix of stocks and say 10,20% in bonds. I like bonds such as corporates VCLT. Hope it help, I AM not an investment advisor.

  46. whidbey says:

    jobless claims up quite a bit and consumer prices up. Not good with debt already high for consumers. Be careful, things are showing stress.

  47. whidbey says:

    In the news this AM(MARKET WATCH quote) :Sales at retailers nationwide dropped 0.2% to mark the biggest decline in six months, the government said today. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast no change.

    I think no rate increases by the fed…. Still long a few ETFs and may add some bonds today.

  48. AussieJS says:

    the bears are doing well to force the price up,so as to get set

    helped by quad witches,–teddy bear–grusom bear,,awesom bear and vicious bear

    could be the top today,or go even higher to end the bull 2009

    depends on what prince insto bear deems fitting to end all bulls

    down with the bulls–long live the bears

  49. whidbey says:

    The opportunity to embrace a constructive or aggressive investment stance will emerge over the completion of the current market cycle, as it has been so over the completion of every market cycle in history.
    Holding a few ETFs…waiting.