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  1. jims says:

    Smi (smart money indicator) service. buy sds at open…

  2. jims says:

    oil volatility is wicked today..

  3. whidbey says:

    We wait for fed to decide.

  4. whidbey says:

    buying oil,silver and beans today for rest of year.

  5. whidbey says:

    Reits in my portfolio have done well recently – up +.84% yesterday. The cash holdings are doing OK too. I am expecting a decline of major proportions before this cycle completes over the next couple of years.

  6. Daddy paul says:

    Looks like the train is pulling out of the station. Be long or be wrong. It feels like Jan 1988. As Jason says press the accelerator.

  7. whidbey says:

    Excesses in corporate credit preceded each of the three previous recessions.
    Ten years ago, one-third (33%) of corporations carried lower-quality ratings of BBB. Right now? 50%.
    The credit cycle has peaked or is extremely close to having done so.
    Household and corporate leveraging on “too-low-for-too-long” monetary manipulation is not likely to avoid negative consequences as the Federal Reserve presses down harder on the brake pads.

    Short call Condor indicated.

  8. cyber5 says:

    I think your are right whidbey. I am in Australia and we have this royal commission into banking and financial institutions going on and its been digging up all sorts of rorts that are mostly related to institutions milking the clients funds.

    One company (AMP.asx) has been getting hammered from revelation that it has been charging clients for fictitious services for years while lying to the regulators. Now it looks like they will go under. It has also been revealed that the loan books of the aus banks are full of sup-prime lair loans.

    Lets face it, central banks have been printing money like confetti and telling everyone that there is no inflation while all the time ignoring the elephant in the room => all the ballooning overpriced assets.

    Now the bubble is stretched to the max and it is no longer possible for financial institutions to grow and make money from loans linked to rising asset prices. It is now also difficult for them to make money from milking the client funds because of the regulators.

    So where is all the money going to come from to keep these financial institutions afloat? Big credit crunch brewing!

  9. whidbey says:

    The spread between the 2-year and 10-year bond yields is hovering above minor support at 43 basis points. That’s its lowest levels since 2007. The decision-making committee’s next meeting is June 12-13.
    A 25-basis-point hike in June, , would leave the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yield at less than 25 basis points.

    If the yield curve flattens, or even inverts, expect to see additional selling pressure on the financial sector. The banks, regional banks especially, will be laggards of the sector.

    Short call Condor is my call!

  10. whidbey says:

    Lollapalooza of a day. Bonds and notes above 3%, “problems” for consumer,banks and holders of the debt. Holding options and lots of cash.

  11. liar liar says:

    dollar index put in a short term bottom and put together a very impressive, steep rally, bringing into question whether it was a major bottom. hard to tell right now. bonds are breaking below their previous lows, turning more and more into a longer term down trend. if confirmed, both of these trends will have consequences.

  12. whidbey says:

    Change in the Volcker rule. I would guess it will relax some trading rules for banks allowing greater liquidity in the economy. Gold prices is saying today is important. Be alert for the US$ to vary significantly in the near future. No investment advice is to be implied from this post

  13. whidbey says:

    Rising Fed rates are creating what is the single biggest upward driver for Treasury yields — the jump in money-market rates now verge oN offering real returns to investors (and beating stock dividend yields).

    The Bloomberg Barclays index of T-notes due in 10 years or less is heading for the first losing streak in its 45-year history. gOLD IS ACTING STRANGELY, waiting to buy maybe shifting to call opions.

  14. Daddy paul says:

    I enjoyed Jason’s video. I have selective perception but I hear all the time from other successful traders emotions are not your friend in trading. Jason acknowledges that we have emotions in his video. Two thumbs up.

  15. whidbey says:

    XLE is up 9% this year and up 17% Y/Y. Energy has been a buy for a while, still looks good unless USA economy enters weakness or recession. Things are slowing for summer, Sell in May is still an alternative. Largely in cash…… watching.

  16. cyber5 says:

    Get ready for a China backlash on trade. China has just blocked all Aussie wine imports at the border. “New customs rules targeting Australian companies and industries” is the reason given. Many are suggesting it is for siding with the US on too many issue. This could get ugly!

  17. bravon says:

    Thanks for the Video, Jason!
    I wish you included at least a couple examples where you took the loss based on your system and it jumped up the day after and never came back. And also how you felt and dealt with it.
    Thanks for everything you do.