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  1. whidbey says:

    Major public and gov’t Debt levels are showing high points ; but not necessarily tops; fear the Fed which moving towards some kind of recession in the fall via its rate policy promises. Then there is El Nino jump in the weather pattern- more rain. live it up and stay on your diet.

  2. whidbey says:

    Market Building cause for next leg down before the 4th of July. Being under invested in cash sounds right for now.

    Jason: we missed you yesterday, hope all is well.

    • Jason Leavitt says:

      It was a travel day. I’ll be spending the next 5 weeks in Costa Rica, but the site will not be interrupted.

  3. whidbey says:

    The market in trading range to oct, a new bull probably starts in second week of Oct, but buy and holding will require patience. I use 31 days to time moves from wherever we were/are. I like bonds which are at lows now or soon. TLT is interesting. I suspect that worldwide things will look up so I will hold some internationals in Europe, watch China carefully.

  4. Daddy Paul says:

    We need a couple down days in a row for a buy signal. This up down up down is hard for my trading style.

  5. AussieJS says:

    looks like a developing H/S and their is a triangle there

  6. Daddy paul says:

    I was buying gas before the 4th of July the price was about 2.59. I was waiting in line to pay my fee and there was a young man cleaning the floor. We started talking and I said the price of gas will be over 3 on the 4th of July he replied it’s going up $200 a barrel and the stock market’s going to crash 10000 points. So I asked him what in this investment decision would you make his answer was if he had any money he would buy gold. If I have ever had a signal to tell me to go long this was it.

  7. whidbey says:

    US trade deficit drops to smallest since before 2016 election. Is it a buy? possibly short run but keep an open mind.

  8. whidbey says:

    We come to deep summer knowing that fall 2018 will end a long run in USA and EU markets. The primary path to success so far? Exposure to tech-oriented and growth-oriented securities in funds like Vanguard Growth (NYSEARCA:VUG), iShares Russell 1000 Growth (NYSEARCA:IWF), and SPDR S&P 500 Growth (NYSEARCA:SPYG/VOOG). Holding cash and watching.

  9. AussieJS says:

    dow and spx still in downtrend below highs –ndx diverging

    the end is close

  10. AussieJS says:

    for daytraders—was this a good point to short the bounce

  11. whidbey says:

    The peak looks like started a few months ago – that means over the next six months things can get ugly fast. Fed tightening, and trade wars – the coming months have limited upside with possible significant downside – things are negatively asymmetric (high risk – low reward). keeping plenty of cash, maybe some precious metals later.

  12. Daddy paul says:

    Todays gap. Noise

  13. whidbey says:

    WTI looking good.

  14. Daddy Paul says:

    Record highs time to take some off table.

  15. whidbey says:

    ​If the Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese and other imports turn into noticeable price increases, consumer spending could crumple in a matter of months, and US economic growth could fall to close to zero from an estimated 2.8% to 4% for the second quarter.” (David Goldman

  16. Daddy paul says:

    I am selling out from my Feb 2 buy signal today. I wish I would have heled all of my trade until today I would have made more money. I don’t have next months wall Street journal or I could be very rich.

  17. whidbey says:

    We have seen little as yet.inflation and fed reactions are yet to unfold, but the FANGE crew are likely to last into deep fall when the holiday sales attempt to revive the market, Watch energy and consumables before the recession arrives in January 2019.

  18. whidbey says:

    Iranian barrels are rolling off the piers, the Saudis and the Russians are ramping up production of oil, and of course, there’s the newly revealed wild card: The U.S. government is considering tapping into its emergency oil reserves ahead of the mid-term elections. In short, watch crude,WTI, to be precise. This could be the start of something ugly.

  19. whidbey says:

    Short gold and silver this AM.

  20. whidbey says:

    There is no divergence yet between stock indices and the NYSE’s composite A-D Line. But there is one in the High Yield Bonds (like HYD) Line, and that is an early warning of big trouble to come. McClellan Charts this Am