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  1. AussieJS says:

    the bulls still have a chance at dow 24000 spx 2550

    atm they can not get a rally
    shorts are going great

  2. whidbey says:

    the Congress decided against a shut down. Suspect being bankrupt will not stop investing so I am looking for dips to buy.

    Value
    6/29/2014 Value
    2/28/2018 Annualized
    Return
    VDIGX 100.00 141.23 9.9%
    SPY 100.00 148.95 11.5%

  3. AussieJS says:

    the move from jan have all been very predictable

    wave 1 down wave 2 up then fed day was a classic with a shooting star
    the instos [ and world plunge protection] pushed prices up and stole all the short stops
    now they own the shorts

    also it left island reversals in many indexes

    so is this wave 3 crash wave down

    to be sure we need to break dow 24000 [futures got down to 23700]
    spx 2600 [futures got down to 2613 ]

    alternatively if we dont decisively break here,then their could be a bullish symmetrical triangle in play

    • jims says:

      Wonder if the chinese based yuan/gold oil trading contracts will have anything to do with crash on monday the 26th..

  4. Joeee says:

    The world economy, Housing is overbuilt, tech is over hyped and overpriced, consumers are overbought and hold too much debt. The Feb lows must be tested before going bullish again.

  5. AussieJS says:

    nas 100 and dax have been my best shorts and should give up all of their upward vertical move

  6. AussieJS says:

    new targets

    below 23200 2550 6200

  7. whidbey says:

    Trade War “Perfect Storm” Fears Fade…probably for just for a few days. Looking for dips to buy.still keeping 90% of portfolio in cash.

  8. Daddy paul says:

    I got a buy signal. All in Friday at close

  9. AussieJS says:

    well done Daddy paul

    only in bear markets do you get violent short ups

    spx closed friday with a new closing low

    what is to come will be horrific and a result of QUANT TIGHTENING ,rising libor interest rates ruduced
    liquidity and the instos can see the writing on the wall

    also the world produces to much with to little money about–deflation

  10. whidbey says:

    Europe has major problems in its banks, the ECB’s annual report showed some banks were found to be deficient in the way they identify problem customers and loans, applied set aside provisions and choose when to grant credit – according to Reuters this AM.In other words “some (read more than half) European banks” lied about pretty much everything.

    This may be happening worldwide, the USA has debt at levels, Federal and state pensions, that exceed anything in economic history. Gold,silver and platinum are showing new attraction for citizens. The recent up swing in stocks is dissipating this morning keep your eyes open this week it may a change point.

  11. whidbey says:

    roll in the hay, then the correction starts. holding lots of cash , sniffing silver too.

    • Robert Barron says:

      Remove me.
      Both stock and estate markets rigged for rich.
      Trump and Kushner foolscto buy at top but get away with it due to laws that let them not pay those theyowe.
      The small fries never learn and sell and buy at bad times in all markets.
      Sick of the whole mess.

      • Jason Leavitt says:

        You have been removed. Not sure why you let a disgust for politics stand in the way of you making money.

  12. Daddy paul says:

    This feels like late summer 98 and late 87. My numbers tell me this is much like 1998. I don’t have data to compare 87. We know what happened back in those days. History repeats itself.

    • whidbey says:

      Tease, what happened late summer 1998? My data suggests things are very different and offer no, or little, insight is offered.

    • AussieJS says:

      we aint had nothing so far

      we still have the panic margin call CRASH

      and thats only near term

      its a global market

  13. Chuck says:

    I don’t see the $149/Year Weekly offer on your site.

  14. whidbey says:

    Concerns for current us debt levels, interest rates low, Fed policy threatens higher rates. holding lots of cash. China threatens higher tariffs this AM.

    • whidbey says:

      DOWN 409 DOW points 0900hrs PT done 500 dow points
      ; too much pain TOO LAST UNLESS MAJOR CORRECTION is now UNDERWAY. Possible major correction since market leadership showing weakness’

  15. AussieJS says:

    1st target—dow 17500

  16. whidbey says:

    Round two. According to analyst expectations measured by FactSet, earnings are on track to rise 17.3% in the first quarter 2018, the best performance since the first quarter of 2011, when earnings rose 19.5%. And analysts have only been getting more bullish in recent weeks. As of Dec. 31, 2017, first-quarter earnings were expected to rise just 11.4%. Watch if there is a disappointment. Otherwise a recovery to new highs might take place….. Still big on cash either way.

  17. whidbey says:

    Trade War? Hold on! This too shall pass away, maybe? Bonds are not upset, so China could be less critical than we know.

  18. AussieJS says:

    the nas 100 made new high,when the dow/spx did not and thus a divergence
    the nas is on a different wave structure to dow/spx
    however all now seem to be in a wave 3 down of their respective waves
    nas–wave 3 of wave 1
    dow /spx wave 3 of 3

    wave 3 consists of 5 waves

    violent up/downs are a precursor to a crash
    the up/downs are a bunch of wave 1 and 2 of 3

    if we get a panic crash it will be wave 3 of 3 of the respective waves

    so far the instos are still in control but forced selling will fix that

  19. AussieJS says:

    violent up/downs occurred just before the 87 and 2000 crashes

    i dont remember the 29/30’s

  20. whidbey says:

    Employment data today. jason’s lecture is morning is worth the time today, but seems below the firing line for this war.

    • whidbey says:

      A re-survey of spring 2018 says market up into the fall of 2018, low in the market Oct 2018. Just timers hunch. Be careful!!!

  21. whidbey says:

    employment is equivocal, looks like a loser day, oh yes, fed speck later on.

  22. whidbey says:

    Markets hang on pending earnings to come. Heavy breathing is heard in my den.

  23. Daddy paul says:

    The bull is back

  24. whidbey says:

    Earning this week, banks looking strong,technology in general is questionable. Yesterday? you keep it.

  25. Daddy paul says:

    Gap up sell. Buy back in a half hour

  26. whidbey says:

    pPt spreads, very confused events in Syria. If Russians shoot back it could ugly quickly; otherwise just another day in the markets.

  27. Daddy paul says:

    Go long or b wrong

  28. whidbey says:

    Bond sales today, but market is up a little. Interest rates will rise this spring..bearish in longer run.

  29. whidbey says:

    banks today. but,US Gross National Debt Spikes $1.2 Trillion in 6 Months, Hits $21 Trillion. Personally we are poorer than we can imagine, Oh yes, pay your federal taxes soon..if you can.

  30. whidbey says:

    Banks report today, US debt is at new high today again. The bonds look bearish; interest rates rising, dollar is rising as external buyers looking at gains from exchange. Thank god it is Friday.

  31. whidbey says:

    Earnings still in play today, but better bonds. Watching gold, ie, ABX etc. Where is Syria?

  32. whidbey says:

    Bonds and gold above 1365.

  33. whidbey says:

    Bonds are a problem it appears. Junk bond yields have a tendency to blow out as the companies that issued those bonds suddenly get caught in a credit squeeze and have trouble servicing that debt. It will worsen this spring and then comes recession. This am gold is less attractive than yesterday.Keep thinking…..

  34. Daddy paul says:

    Press the accelerator.

    • whidbey says:

      Check the precious metals(silver)for attempts to rise (not ready yet), leave the bonds alone for a while. Nasdaq is confused and could be strong today but will be weak I think. Overall not a good trade today. I am wrong only than half my calls……

  35. whidbey says:

    Nothing worth worrying about, earnings go on, bonds and precious metals are not so important. hold on for Monday, for a plunge I think.

    • whidbey says:

      FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 11:15 AM EST. This is major possibly, Worth being aware of since another rate increase is possible, I think very dangerous.

  36. whidbey says:

    Short RUT,gld,MCD. entering down cycle.

  37. whidbey says:

    Sometime later this summer, the FOMC is going to realize that its reduction of holdings of Treasuries and MBS is creating a big liquidity problem, and they will abandon or curtail those plans…. then it needs time for a react; it is going to require a lot of damage to the stock market to get them to realize what they need to do; that realization will hit them sometime around August 2018, and it should lead to a huge stock market rebound into year-end 2018. But it will be a rebound from a big selloff in the earlier summer; so “sell in May and go away is probably good advice”. but wait for the dip in the summer to buy into the confusion and stay long enough make some money.

  38. whidbey says:

    The concern is that bonds are becoming attractive relative to stocks. Worry about the spread between the S&P 500 dividend yield and the 10yr Treasury yield messing around 3%. And it is….. “Sell in May and go away soon…… Go sailing?

  39. whidbey says:

    The Bloomberg FX carry index for eight emerging markets “has given up all its 2018 returns. No Escape From the Sell in May and go away, but stay away from EM says Bloomberg. Lost money yesterday, but it is not May yet!!

  40. AussieJS says:

    triangles everywhere would indicate this is a 4th wave with a strong up for a 5th wave

    we are still in a down trend from january highs with the action since then a complex sideways chopy correction larger wave 2 up,with the last little bit playing out now before wave 3 down crash

    one thing i am noticing is the starting of usd up/euro down
    this could indicate scared money coming into usa and could help usa stocks

    if price breaks bottom boundaries of triangle then the wave 3 down is starting